000
FXUS64 KSHV 300956
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
456 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING THE FOUR STATE REGION WAS UNDER THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT AND UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NORTH FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. FOR THE SHORT TERM AND LONG
TERM PERIODS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS MASSIVE AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
AS A RESULT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND GENERALLY AROUND
THE PERIPHERY WITH DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE INTO THE RIDGE. A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE
HEAT...WITH DAYTIME READINGS CLIMBING TO NEAR 100 DEGREES OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR JUST ABOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HAVE GONE JUST A
LITTLE BELOW THE GFS AND GFSX MOS GUIDANCE SINCE BEING INFORMED THAT
THE NEW GFS MOS DEPLOYED HAS A SLIGHT WARM BIAS. WITH READINGS ON
THE HOT SIDE THE GROUND WILL DRY OUT AND READINGS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE ACCORDINGLY. WILL STILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE UNTIL MODEL
DATA COMES AROUND. NOT CONFIDENT OF THE MODEL DATA DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE BLENDED. TODAY THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND DEW POINTS LOOK TO KEEP THE HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WITH GTE/GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 100
DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WOULD EXPECT A HEAT
ADVISORY TO BE IN THE REALM OF A POSSIBILITY. PERSONS SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE DANGERS OF THE UPCOMING PERIOD OF HEAT. /06/

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...AS SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION. AN AREA OF 15KFT CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTER
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS ECNTRL TX...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE
SHOULD THIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH A SCT CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR/N LA. SKC IS EXPECTED AFTER
00Z...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING SATURDAY.  WSW
WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL BECOME SSW 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  76 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  99  74 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  98  73 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  97  75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  98  73 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  96  75 100  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  97  74  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

06/15